EV Sales Are Growing - Even as Federal Headwinds Build
By John Higham
As we head into the second half of 2025, one thing is clear: electric vehicles are no longer a fringe market. They’re mainstream—and growing.
A few weeks ago I was asked by Public News Service whether regulatory headwinds would impact EV sales. At the time, I responded with what anecdotal data I had, but now I would like to respond with facts, not anecdotes. Let’s start with EV sales in general.
According to a recent Cox Automotive report, the latest I could find on 2024 overall sales numbers, EV sales in the U.S. grew by 40% year over year, reaching nearly 1.2 million vehicles sold. That translates to a national EV market share of 8.1%, up from 7.8% in 2023.
“Consumer interest is strong, automakers are committed, and market forces are aligning in favor of cleaner, quieter, and more efficient transportation.”
While the Cox report is data for the US as a whole, there is more recent data from the state of California. According to the California Energy Commission, 23% of new cars sold in early 2025 were zero-emission vehicles. That represented a slight drop from 2024 Q1 numbers, but that doesn’t tell the entire tale. In what the CEC refers to as a “changing EV market,” the slight drop in the EV adoption rate is attributed to the 21.5% drop in Tesla sales in the state, which was partially offset by a 14% increase in EV sales from other manufacturers. Overall, the California Energy Commission forecasts robust EV sales growth.
Policy Headwinds on the Horizon
Yet we must acknowledge that strong growth is facing challenges in the form of a policy shift from the Trump administration. Thankfully, we can now back up our previously stated expectations of growth despite stiff headwinds with insightful analysis by Harvard’s Salata Institute.
In January, President Trump signed an executive order aimed at reversing EV-related policies from the Biden era. Proposed changes include:
Eliminating federal EV tax credits
Halting the $5 billion National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure (NEVI) charging program
Revoking California’s waiver to enforce stricter emissions standards
Reevaluating fuel economy and emissions regulations
These changes, if fully enacted, could significantly dampen the pace of EV adoption, but we can now show thoughtful analysis that while growth is slowing, year-over-year sales growth is still expected.
The Harvard study, by economists Elaine Buckberg and Cassandra Cole, found that rolling back all federal EV support would drop the projected EV share of 2030 new vehicle sales from 48% to 32%. While that’s a substantial setback, 32% of new car sales being electric by the year 2030 still represents significant growth from the 8.1% reported by Cox Automotive in 2024.
One of the key findings by Buckberg and Cole is that the effect of these policies is to postpone EV adoption in the United States by two to three years. I would say that despite the current administration's position on electric vehicles, EVs still make a compelling form of transportation, and there is no putting the genie back in the bottle.
A $250 Federal EV Tax?
Adding to the challenge, Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” a $250 annual federal tax on EVs, citing the fact that electric drivers don’t contribute to the federal gas tax (currently 18.4¢ per gallon).
The Electric Vehicle Association believes all drivers should contribute fairly to road maintenance. But let’s do the math:
The average gas-powered vehicle pays $80–$100/year in federal gas taxes.
A $200 flat fee for EVs overcharges and disincentivizes adoption.
Our position: If federal lawmakers want to maintain infrastructure fairly, they should consider tripling the gas tax, which hasn’t been updated since 1993 to match what EV drivers would be paying if the $250 annual tax proposal becomes law.
What Comes Next?
The policy shifts coming out of Washington may slow the EV transition. But they won’t reverse it.
EVs are still:
A better driving experience than their ICE counterparts
More efficient and cheaper to operate
Preferred by younger consumers
Central to automakers’ investment strategies
Critical to meeting state climate goals
A worldwide trend that the US may postpone, but not eradicate
The Harvard report makes this clear: even in the most extreme rollback scenarios, growth resumes, and EVs continue to gain market share.
Our Commitment
At the Electric Vehicle Association, we remain committed to:
Advocating for fair and forward-looking policies
Pushing back on disproportionate fees and rollbacks
Working with stakeholders to accelerate infrastructure buildout
Educating the public about the long-term benefits of driving electric
The road ahead may have bumps—but the direction is clear. EVs are the future. And we’re driving it.
Photo Credit: Athel Rogers